The sun broke out this Sunday at noon in Steamboat Springs, with the temperature right at freezing, while the top of the Steamboat Ski Area has clouds, a temperature of thirteen degrees, and gusty breezes from the northwest. After a bit of snow tonight, temperatures will begin a warming trend that lasts through the workweek, bringing high temperatures into the mid-forties in town and upper-twenties near the top of the hill. Uncertainty remains high regarding the strength and duration of a warm storm around midweek that could bring liquid precipitation to town and snow to the higher elevations.

Since winter started properly a week ago Friday, the Steamboat Ski Resort has reported snow every morning except last Sunday, with mid-mountain accumulating 32” of snow. The well-advertised storm this weekend produced winds gusting to above 70 mph at the top of the hill on Saturday, and 17” of snow since it started on Thursday night.

Our area remains in breezy northwest flow as winds accelerate toward a persistent trough of low pressure extending southwards from Hudson Bay. A weak wave moving through this northwest flow will bring a chance of snow showers from about midnight tonight through noon on Monday, leaving 1-4” for the Monday morning report and perhaps another inch or two by noon.

Similar to today, the sun should appear by Monday afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid-thirties, above the average of freezing.

A complicated weather pattern in the central Pacific is making for an uncertain precipitation forecast from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and possibly Thursday, though warming temperatures are more certain. A storm over the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to merge with a storm south of the Aleutian Islands, elongating southwestward towards Hawaii. A broad ridge of high pressure then develops downstream of this feature over the West, continuing a warming trend that brings high temperatures into the low-forties by midweek.

Subtropical and possibly tropical moisture will be drawn northeastward along the eastern side of the central Pacific low pressure area and injected into the high pressure ridge. It appears we will at least see a grazing shot of precipitation later Tuesday into Wednesday as this moisture moves nearby, though snow levels are forecast to rise to above Christie Peak by Wednesday afternoon.

Weather forecast models have varied considerably, both between and within themselves, as they struggle with the amount of cold air drawn southward from western Canada and southwestward from Hudson Bay. The European ECMWF is more pessimistic than the American GFS, and has been more consistent in predicting a jet stream further north and lower precipitation amounts. We could see as much as 2-5” of snow by the Wednesday and Thursday morning ski reports, or as little as 1-4” just on Wednesday.

In any event, there is forecast consistency for a warm and dry weekend. Let’s hope the jet stream sags to the south midweek, and I’ll have more details on the weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.